ASSOCHAM's latest paper "Wine : Bearing Fruit in India" predicts that the consumption is likely to touch 28 million litres by 2015. The Study assumes current level of consumption in major cities to be 21 million litres. It says that the current consumption is growing at 30% annually, faster than that for any other alcoholic beverage
In the press release, ASSOCHAM Secretary General Mr. D S Rawat says that the demand for wine, nearly 85% is accounted for by major cities of New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Pune, Goa, Punjab and Bangalore. Around 63% of the volume sales of wine are through off-trade channel in five-star hotels, pubs and bar-restaurants and the market is expected to grow to 28 million litres by 2015.
The paper said that Mumbai accounts for 32 per cent of the total consumption in India, followed by Delhi and Goa, contributing 20 percent each, Bangalore 18 percent, Punjab 6 percent and Pune 4 percent. The study also cites that the soaring popularity of imported brands is presenting international companies great opportunities for strong value growth.
Lets go back a little. What about the previous forecasts from ASSOCHAM?
Back in 2008, ASSOCHAM predicted the Indian wine consumption to grow astronomically to 852 million litres by 2030 from a base 5 million in 2007. In 2011, Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India forecasted 14.7 million litres for 2012 and now 28 million litres for 2015.
ASSOCHAM's predictions seems of well on track only if its assumption on current consumption were reliable.
Subash Arora reacted to 2011 forecast by calling the figures confounding
"Whatever the figures of 2008 have been assumed, 2009 was a disaster and 2010 barely reached the level of 2009. Current year is showing the buoyancy and 30-35% annual increase is most likely in 2011 and 2012. But if the figures of 2010 are assumed to be close to 2008 (many producers and importers would claim this to be an optimistic estimate), it would be far-fetched to expect an almost three and a half times growth during the next two years. DelWine expects the growth to be much lower than predicted."
Given that reliable consumption figures are not available for Indian wine market, the assumptions and forecasts may not always hold true.